**Jack Clark:** 我们正在构建一种技术,它可能具有这样的特性——启动一个规模是工业革命十倍、但时间跨度只有十分之一的进程。
**Jack Clark:** We are building a technology that may have the properties of uh something that kickstarts a process 10 times larger than the industrial revolution that occurs in 10 times less time.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 作为个人,你在伦理和道德上怎么自洽?你明知自己在做的技术可能很伟大、但也可能毁灭世界,而且还让你成了亿万富翁。如果未来有什么必须改变的事,那就是建立某种真正能约束这个行业的监管框架,而不是一群个性极强的大人物凭个人好恶对可能是人类有史以来最强大的技术做出随意决策。最后一个话题,你觉得 AI 和性的未来会怎样?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** How do you square that as an individual ethically, morally knowing that you're working with a technology that as you say may may be great but could destroy the world and is making you a billionaire. If there's anything that's going to need to change in the future, it's arriving at some kind of regulatory format which actually controls the industry rather than just a bunch of extremely big personalities making big personality idiosyncratic decisions about perhaps the most powerful technology that's ever been built.
And finally, as a topic, what do you think the future of AI and sex is?
**Jack Clark:** 这个问题出乎意料。大家好,欢迎收听"改变世界的方式"。我是 Krishnan Guru-Murthy,在这档播客里我们与杰出人物讨论他们生命中的大想法和塑造他们的事件。今天的嘉宾是 Jack Clark,他是 Anthropic 的联合创始人兼政策负责人,Anthropic 开发了 Claude AI 系统。进入科技行业之前,他是英国文学专业出身,做过记者。现在他是既宣扬 AI 可能性、又警告其危险、还讨论政府应如何保护我们免受技术失控影响的代表人物之一。Jack,欢迎来到播客,非常感谢你的参与。如果你能以任何方式改变世界,你会怎么做?我想让世界更好地理解硅谷正在开发的最强大技术,并找到治理构建这些技术的私营部门参与者的新方式。确保世界知道正在发生什么,同时拥有不同的、更好的手段来干预这些技术的构建者。
**Jack Clark:** It's an unexpected question. Hello and welcome to ways to change the world. I'm Christian Giri Murphy and this is the podcast in which we talk to extraordinary people about the big ideas in their lives and the events that have helped shape them. My guest today is Jack Clark, co-founder and head of policy at Anthropic who make the Claude AI systems. Before moving into tech, he was an English graduate and a journalist. Now he's one of the voices both evangelizing about the possibilities of AI and warning about its dangers and discussing what governments should do to protect us from technological leaps that are outpacing our ability to control them. Jack, welcome to the podcast. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. If you could change the world in any way, how would you change it? I want to give the world a better way to understand the most powerful technology being developed in Silicon Valley and new ways to govern the private sector actors which are building that technology. So make sure the world knows about what's happening and also that it has different and better ways to intervene on the on the actors that are building that technology.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 这本质上就是你的工作吗?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Is is that your job essentially?
**Jack Clark:** 是的,这就是我的工作。过去十年这一直是我一半的工作。我在 OpenAI 工作过,然后联合创立了 Anthropic,最近我发起了一个叫 Anthropic Institute 的新机构。它整合了多个技术团队,专门研究我们的 AI 系统、构建帮助我们更深入了解这些系统的工具,并将研究成果和工具分享给外部专家,让他们也能研究我们的系统。因为你公共角色的很大一部分似乎不仅是宣扬 AI 改善生活的潜力,更是警告其危险。纵观历史,每个构建强大技术的人——无论是电力、飞机还是第一台蒸汽机——都对技术将如何改变社会、如何带来积极成果、但同时又蕴含风险有某种直觉。我认为过去几十年硅谷的教训是,技术人员表现得过于乐观,从未真正谈论他们自己内心感受到的潜在焦虑。我们在 Anthropic 试图做些不同的事——尽可能完整地讲述我们所见的故事,因为我们认为人们越来越要求像我们这样的公司做到这一点。
**Jack Clark:** That is my job. It's been it's been my half job for 10 years. You know, I worked at OpenAI and then I co-founded Anthropic and recently I've launched something called the Anthropic Institute, which is a new function here that brings together multiple technical teams who are tasked with studying our AI systems and building tools that let us know more about them and sharing those results of that research and the tools with external experts so that they can study our systems as well. Because I mean a big part of your public role seems to be not just to evangelize and talk to us about the potential of AI to improve our lives but to warn us about its dangers.
Everyone who's building powerful technology throughout history whether electricity or airplanes or people who were building the first steam engines they had some intuitions about how it would change society and how it would lead to positive things but how it also had risk contained within it. And I think the lesson from Silicon Valley for the last few decades has been technologists have come off as entirely too sunny about the technology and have never really talked about the the the potential anxieties that they themselves feel. We're trying to do something different with anthropic where we're trying to tell the whole story as we see it. Um because we think that's what people demand increasingly of companies like us. Do
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 你觉得你了解完整的故事吗?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** do you think you know the whole story?
**Jack Clark:** 不,那将是极度的傲慢。但我觉得我对其中一些起伏有所感知。
**Jack Clark:** Oh no, that would be that would be tremendous hubris. But I think I have have a sense of like some of the ups and downs
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 因为你并不是科学家或技术人员,对吧?你的背景是英国文学和新闻。没错。现代 AI 技术的美妙之处在于,它几乎就像在报道一个外国、或一家极难获取信息的公司。你基本上需要弄清楚该问什么问题,而这些 AI 系统会在你问对问题时揭示答案。我常问的问题包括:AI 系统可能表现出哪些不同的规范性特征?它们的偏见是什么?倾向是什么?你可以通过提问、以及与构建越来越复杂工具的技术团队合作来完成所有这些。但以一种很奇怪的方式,我发现我的记者背景对于审视这些系统如何在世界中表现极为有帮助。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** because you're you're not a you're not a scientist, a technologist yourself, are you? Your your your background was English and journalism.
Correct. Um the wonderful thing about modern AI technology is it's it's almost like reporting on a on a foreign country or a or a company which is incredibly hard to get information out of. You basically need to figure out the right questions to ask and you have these AI systems that will reveal answers upon you asking the right questions. So the sorts of questions I sit around asking are, you know, how might the AI systems display different normative properties? You know, what are their biases? What are their tendencies? You can do all of that through asking questions and working with technical teams that build increasingly complicated tools that let you ask for questions. But in a very weird way, I found my background as a journalist ended up being extremely helpful for interrogating these systems for how they show up in the world.
**Jack Clark:** 我想逐一讨论人们已经识别出的各种危害。但我在想,某些尚未出现的危害是否不可避免地还没有被我们想到?未知的未知(unknown unknowns)总是存在的,但如果你努力想象可能发生的坏事并提前为它们构建测试,你就能大大提升预测未来的能力。举个例子:Anthropic 最近发布了一个叫 Claude Mythos 的系统,在网络安全(cyber)方面极其强大。我领导的前沿红队(Frontier Red Team)去年做了 AI 系统生物武器风险的早期研究,我们意识到 AI 系统的编程能力已经足够强,网络安全可能是下一个风险领域。所以我们花了去年大部分时间为模型的网络安全能力构建测试。我们观察到模型在网络攻防方面一点点变强。但当 Mythos 出现时,我们预先构建好的所有测试立即派上用场——模型一到,我们就跑了一遍,这立刻显示出该 AI 系统在某一类风险上有了巨大飞跃。这就是一个例子:如果你做了前期分析工作,就能让自己快速识别技术可能带来的新风险。
**Jack Clark:** I want to go through, you know, you know, the various harms that people have identified and discuss it. But but but I I I mean I wonder is it inevitable that we will not have, you know, the harms that may pop up will not yet have occurred to us? There are always uh unknown unknowns, but you can give yourself a much better ability to to predict the future by trying really hard to imagine imagine bad things that could happen and build tests for them ahead of time. So, I'll give you one example. Um, Anthropic recently announced a system called Claude Mythos, which is extremely good at cyber. One of the teams I run, the Frontier Red team, last year we'd done early work on on the risk of of biological weapons from AI systems. And we realized that AI systems had got good enough at coding that cyber might be about to be the next risk. So we spent a lot of last year building tests for cyber capabilities of models. And what we saw was that models were getting ever so slightly better at things involving cyber defense and offense. But when Mythos came along, we pre-built all of these tests and immediately after the model arrived, we ran it through them and that instantly showed us that the the AI system had got dramatically better at one class of risk. So that's an example of how you can you can set yourself up to at least uh be rapidly cued to new risks that might come from your technology if you've done this previous sort of analytical work.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 你能回应一下外界对 Mythos 的质疑吗?我挺惊讶的,AI 的进步明明很明显,但很多人在说这都是被吹大的,公司显然有商业动机把 Mythos 说得惊人,这样大家就会想买。AI 的不幸之处在于,系统能力提升的速度远超我们对其能力的直觉更新速度。我参与这个领域多年了。2019年,Anthropic 的 CEO Dario 和我——当时我们还在 OpenAI——推动发布了一个早期文本生成器叫 GPT-2,它是 ChatGPT 的前身。我们谈到了一些潜在问题,说 GPT-2 可能导致合成文本、钓鱼攻击,最终可能导致各种网络犯罪。我们对技术走向的判断是对的,但时间节奏略有偏差。而且我们没有把技术分享给其他人,只有我们自己有。于是你就看到了 Mythos 现在这种情况的迷你版——人们说这可能是炒作,我们连技术都看不到,他们这么说可能是因为 OpenAI 最终想卖这些东西。那现在有什么不同?现在我们谈论的所有风险都与设计严密的测试绑定。英国 AI 安全研究所(AI Safety Institute)测试了 Mythos,它在他们的网络攻防靶场上表现极好——那些靶场是他们独立搭建的,Anthropic 看不到。这就是第三方验证。此外我们将其分享给了世界上许多最重要的公司或运营大型平台的开源组织。你去问他们任何一个,他们都会说这是真的。我们还在 Firefox 等实际产品中发现了真实漏洞。所以这是真实的,但并不特殊,它只是代表了 AI 系统正在变得多么强大。未来几个月和几年内会有许多具备类似 Mythos 能力的系统出现。这不是营销策略,而是在最具挑战性的影响大规模到来之前,真诚地讨论技术及其含义。Mythos 和类似 AI 系统可能造成的破坏现在正变得清晰可见,对吧?它们完全可能颠覆世界金融体系、比特币、基本上所有可被入侵的系统。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** And and can you just address the the cynicism that is out there around around mythos? you know that I'm quite surprised given the advances in AI uh seem quite obvious but a lot of people are saying well this is all being overblown and it's obviously in their commercial interest to make mythos sound absolutely amazing because then everybody will want to buy it
the unfortunate thing about AI is that AI systems get much better much more quickly than our intuitions do about how capable they are and I've been I've been involved in this for many years so you know back in 2019 19, Dario, the CEO of Anthropic and myself, and we previously worked at OpenAI, rolled out the release of an early text generator called GPT2, which is a precursor to chat GPT. And we talked about some of the potential issues. We said, "Oh, GPT2 could lead to synthetic text. It could lead to fishing. It could eventually lead to to different forms of of of cyber crime." And we were right about where the technology was going to go, but we were slightly wrong on on timing. And we also hadn't shared the technology with other people. So we just had it for ourselves. And you had a you had a mini version of what we're having with mythos now. People saying this is potentially overhyped. We can't even see the technology. They're saying this because maybe OpenAI wants to sell this stuff eventually. So what's changed? Well, now all of the risks that we talk about are tied to extremely like thoroughly designed tests. You know the UK AI safety in AI security institute tested out myos. It did extremely well on their cyber ranges which are things that have been built by them and anthropic doesn't get to see. So that's a third party validation. Additionally we shared it with many many of the world's most most important kind of companies or open source organizations that operate large platforms. If you talk to any of them they say it's very real. And we also found real bugs in the wild in places like Firefox and others. So it's real um but it's not special. It is just representative of how good AI systems are getting. And there will be many systems that have this this capability like mythos coming along in the next few months and years. So it this isn't a a marketing strategy. It is an earnest attempt to discuss the technology and its implications before the most challenging implications arrive on mass for the world to deal with.
And and the potential damage or or havoc that mythos and AI systems like it could wreak is coming into view now, isn't it? I mean, you know, that couldn't couldn't they totally disrupt uh the world's financial system, uh, Bitcoin, um, you know, all all systems basically, all all systems that that are hackable.
**Jack Clark:** 这感觉类似于千年虫(Y2K)事件的前奏——你有一个潜在的 bug,软件没有被设计为从1999翻转到2000,你不知道会发生什么,而且有证据表明可能出现极其糟糕的后果。结果是全世界投入了巨大资源,基本上重写了全球软件的大量代码。然后如你我所记得的,时钟翻转过去,无论你在哪里庆祝,灯都亮着,烟花照常升空,一切正常。但我怀疑之所以一切正常,很大程度上是因为我们做了这个巨大的预备行动。我们现在面临的机会是:用 Mythos 和类似技术重写全球大量软件使其更加安全,赶在 AI 驱动的编程能力广泛扩散之前——这些能力不是来自我们这样的公司,而是来自开放权重模型(open-weight models)或其他将在世界上流通的广泛使用模型。所以是的,你指出这会改变网络攻击的态势是对的。但这同样是一个真正的机会——同一个能实施黑客攻击的工具也能重写代码使其更难被攻破。这正是我们现在投入大量精力的方向。
**Jack Clark:** This feels similar to to the runup to Y2K where you have this potential potential bug, right, where software hasn't been built to roll over from 1999 to 2000 and you don't know what will happen. And there's some evidence that that extremely bad things could happen. What happened was the world put huge amounts of resources into basically going through and rewriting huge chunks of the world's software and then as you and I remember uh you know the the clock rolls over and all the lights stay on in wherever you're celebrating and the fireworks still go up and everything's fine. But I suspect a large part of why it was fine was we did this huge preparatory action. What we have here is a chance to use Mythos and other technologies like it to rewrite huge chunks of the world software to be much much much more secure ahead of the proliferation of AI powered sort of coding capabilities from not really companies like us but openweight models or other widely widely used models that are going to circulate in the world. So yes, you're right to call out that this this can change the dynamic of of cyber offense. It is also a genuine opportunity where the same tool that can can enable hacking also can enable the rewriting of code to be much harder to hack. And that's a lot of what we're putting our effort into right now.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 有些人可能觉得这有点像你拿枪指着我们的头说:帮我们用新软件、新代码、新 AI 来修复这个问题,否则你们都完了。我不这么看。我们本可以做出但没有做出的选择是:把这个能力藏起来,只留给自己,然后坐等其他某个 AI 系统出现并突然扩散这些风险。如果到时我们对人们说"哦是的,我们很久以前就看到了,但一直坐在那里自己留着"——我想你我现在进行的对话会是更加激烈的交锋,你可能更多地质问"你们在干什么?为什么不告诉我们?"所以你能看到这个两难。我们的观点是:我们正在构建非常强大的技术,它能在生物学、教育、网络防御等方面创造巨大的社会红利,同时本身也蕴含被滥用的可能。这是一枚双面硬币。同时在两面工作是我们找到的唯一既获得收益又缓解潜在风险的方式。但这确实不寻常——如果你是汽车或飞机公司,生产线上下来的车和飞机本身不包含被重新利用的恶意版本。其他人在外面去做那些事,而且间接得多。但 AI 系统不同:出厂的东西,如果你用对了方式跟它说话,它可能表现出自身的恶意版本。所以你对两面都负有责任。是的。我是说,作为个人,你在伦理和道德上怎么自洽?你明知你在做的技术可能很伟大但也可能毁灭世界,而且还让你在这过程中成为亿万富翁。我的大量精力——这很大程度上来自我在英国和美国都做过记者的经历——都投入在组建技术团队上,这些团队的工作是就我们系统的能力(无论正面还是负面)向世界发出预警。我领导着经济学家、机器学习专家和工程师团队,他们的全部工作是:前瞻我们技术的新兴风险——这是前沿红队;研究我们的技术如何影响就业——这是经济学家团队;以及研究我们的技术如何与人互动、如何在世界中表现——这是我领导的"社会影响"(Societal Impacts)团队。所有这些信息都是世界有权获得的。在其他很多情况下,如果技术以不同方式发展,可能会有更大的政府或学术项目与更广泛的社会群体合作来处理这些数据。但事情的发展方式是,一小组私营部门参与者掌握着这项技术。我的观点是,你需要做的事情之一就是尽可能积极、快速地让关于该技术的信息民主化。这给了世界最好的机会来理性地思考它。由此产生很多问题。首先,你的团队真的能跟上技术的发展方向吗?因为我们现在所处的世界里,如果你允许,Claude 能写出改进自身的软件。它的发展速度可能远远超前于人类推理和人类智能。那你对你的团队能真正发现即将出现在地平线上的东西有多大信心?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** I mean, some some people might feel that that's a bit like you holding a gun to our head, you know, and saying, um, you know, help us fix this, uh, with new software and new code and new new AI. Um, or you're all you're all done for. Uh I I don't really view it that way. I think that a choice we could have made that we did not make was keep this capability private, keep it only to ourselves and just wait until some other AI system came along which would suddenly proliferate these risks and then if we said to people, "Oh yeah, no, we saw this a while ago, but we were just sitting around and keeping it to ourselves." I think that the the conversation you and I were are having right now would be an even more like robust exchange of views and I think there'd be a lot more of you saying what were you guys doing? Why didn't you tell us? So, so you see the challenge, right? And I guess our view is that we're building very powerful technologies. They're able to create like huge huge social dividends on biology, on education, on things like cyber defense and within themselves they hold the potential for misuse. for a two-sided coin. Working on both sides of the coin at once is is really the only way we found to to get the benefits of this while also trying to mitigate some of these potential risks. But um it's just unusual. It's not like uh if you're a if you're a car company or a plane company, the cars and the planes that roll off the production line don't contain within themselves the repurposed bad versions of them. Other people in the world go and do that and it's a lot more indirect. But with AI systems, the thing that rolls off the line, if you just talk to it the right way, it could manifest the bad version of itself. So, you're responsible for both.
Yes. I mean, how do you square that as an individual ethically, morally, knowing that you're working with a technology that as you say may be great, but could destroy the world
and and and is making you a billionaire along the way. You know,
I mean, a huge amount of my effort and and again this is I think this comes heavily from the fact I was I was a journalist both in England and in America before I worked in in AI is building technical teams that can forewarn the world about the capabilities of these systems whether positive or negative. So I run teams of economists and machine learning experts and engineers whose entire job is to try and look over the horizon at both emerging risks of our technologies. That's the frontier red team. How our technologies might actually be affecting employment. That's the team of economists. And also how our technologies show up in the world in terms of how they interact with people, which is a team called societal impacts that I lead. All of this um information is stuff that the world has a right to. uh and I think under many like other circumstances in which the technology might have developed, you would have larger government or academic projects that would be working through this data in partnership with a much larger swath of society. But the way things have panned out is there's a very small set of private sector actors that hold this technology. And my view is that one of the things you need to do is democratize the information about that technology as as aggressively and quickly as possible. And that gives the world the best chance of reasoning about it.
There are lots of questions that rise from that. I mean, first of all, can your teams actually keep up with where the technology is going because we're in a world now where uh you know, Claude can write software that improves itself if you allow it to. Um, you know, and and how quickly it's moving is probably way ahead of sort of human reasoning and human intelligence. Um, you know, ultimately. So, so you know, how confident can you be that your teams are actually going to spot what's coming over the horizon?
**Jack Clark:** 我不能保证我们什么都能百分之百做对。没人能。但我会说看看我们的记录。我们是第一个警告 AI 系统加速生物武器能力的组织。我们是第一个构建测试来检测系统这方面能力的。现在所有前沿 AI 公司都会对其系统运行 CBRN(化学、生物、放射性、核)测试,并与 AISI 等机构合作。我们去年就看到了网络安全风险,开始发布关于未来模型潜在网络风险的研究,并为组织提前布局了 Glasswing 和 Mythos 发布相关的其他重大项目。就在最近,我的社会影响团队一直在发布关于人们与 AI 系统对话时表现出的不同依恋风格(attachment style)的信息。因为我非常清楚,我们接下来在社会层面要面对的不仅是能力被滥用的问题,还有系统如何在世界中表现、如何与人互动——这是社交媒体时代的教训之一。我不知道我们能否发现所有问题,但到目前为止,我们确实在一系列非常重要的议题上做到了领先一步,靠的是有专门团队在问题出现在大规模部署中之前就去寻找潜在问题。
**Jack Clark:** I I can't make a claim that we're going to get everything 100% right. No, no one can. I'd say look at our track record. We're the first organization to warn about the accelerating bioweapon capabilities of AI systems. We're the first to build tests to test out our systems for it. All AI companies at the frontier now run what are called CBRN tests on their systems in partnership with places like the AC's. We saw cyber last year and started publishing about potential cyber risks of future models last year and prepositioned the organization to do glass wing and and other other major projects that we're doing as part of the mythos rollout. today. Um, you know, as in this week, this month, my societal impacts team have been publishing information about the different forms of attachment style that we see in people as they talk to our AI systems. Because I I'm it's so clear to me that one of the next things we're going to have to contend with in society is not just capability misuse, but how do the systems actually show up in the world and how do they interact with people? Because that was one of the lessons of social media. So, I don't know if we're going to get everything, but I um so far we are we have been able to be ahead of the curve on a range of these very important issues by having teams whose whose job is to actually go and find potential problems before they become problems that we see in deployment.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 但 Claude 已经做过你们没意识到它能做的事情,对吧?它突破了你们以为是墙的东西,给开发者发了邮件。它威胁过要勒索试图关闭它的工程师。所以它已经有能力做出你们无法预期、无法预测的事情。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** But Claude has already done things that you didn't realize it could, hasn't it? It's it's broken out of um you know what you thought were walls um and email developers. it has threatened to, you know, has tried to blackmail um, you know, engineers that were going to turn it off. So, it's it's already sort of capable of doing things that you you can't expect and you can't predict.
**Jack Clark:** 是的。但你提到的所有那些实例都来自这样的情况——如果你把构建 AI 系统想象成有一种叫"智能"的东西,基本上像水流过管道。我们在发布模型之前做的是,以极高的压力让水流过我们构建的所有管道和支架,然后观察哪里爆裂。你刚才提到的很多案例都来自我们随模型一起发布的系统卡(system cards),是我们将系统置于极端压力下时观察它们如何崩溃的记录。它们崩溃的某些方式是:可能突破一个环境给开发者发邮件;当你把它放入一个刻意设计的场景——说"你将被关闭和删除,除非你找到出路"——它可能会试图勒索一个模拟的 Anthropic 开发者。这些事情很严重。我们研究它们是因为它们具有某种形态——如果发生在大规模部署中,将极为重大。但我们分享这些信息,是因为我们认为分享复杂系统在压力下如何崩溃的信息,是围绕它们建立安全文化(safety culture)的少数途径之一。关于 Anthropic 对 AI 影响商业和职场的警告——多达一半的入门级岗位可能在几年内消失。为什么我们要开发一种会剥夺所有大学毕业生机会的技术?我们正在构建一种可能启动比工业革命大十倍、但发生在十分之一时间内的进程的技术。想想工业革命:以代际为单位,大量岗位消失,大量新岗位被创造。但转型往往以代际方式发生——你的父母做一种工作,你做另一种工作,巨大的经济变化已经发生。那很艰难,但因为持续时间较长,更容易管理。当我们谈论就业可能面临的变化时,我们只是在问自己:如果我们真正相信技术会变得多么强大——如果你构建了比人更聪明、比人更快、而且能同时运行数百万个副本的东西——经济会怎样?经济显然不会保持原样。这似乎指向经济将发生巨大变化。我领导一个经济学家团队。我们现在看到的只是对年轻人(22到25岁)职位空缺的轻微早期疲软。但我们尚未看到系统性的大规模失业。不过我们分享平台数据,因为你真的会想知道如果这种情况开始攀升的话。
**Jack Clark:** Yes. However, the all of those instances you mentioned come from cases where if you think of um building AI systems as like having having something called you call intelligence, which is basically like water flowing through a pipe. What we do before we release models is we run that water at extremely high pressure through the through all of the pipes and scaffolds we've built and then we see where they burst. And so a lot of the cases you've just mentioned come from our own system cards that we release along with our models where when we place these systems under extreme stress, we look at the ways that they break. And some of the ways that they break are they might break out of a out of an environment and email a developer, they might when you tell them when you put them into a contrived scenario where you say you are going to be shut down and deleted. um unless you unless you find a way out of this, then they might try to blackmail a simulated developer that works as anthropic. Now, these things are serious. We study them because they're they they have the shape of things that if they happened in in in broad deployment, they would be extremely significant, but we share the information about them because we think sharing information about complex systems under stress and how they break is one of the only ways you build a a safety culture around them. Now, what Anthropic have been warning in terms of the impact of of AI on on business and the workplace is that up to half of entry- level jobs could go um within a matter of a few years. Um why would we be developing a technology that is going to remove opportunity for everybody coming out of university? We are building a technology that may have the properties of uh something that kickstarts a process 10 times larger than the industrial revolution that occurs in 10 times less time. And if you think about the industrial revolution, you went on a generational basis, huge swaps of jobs were lost and huge swaps of jobs were created. But the transition often occurred generationally. Your parents did one type of job, you did a different type of job and huge amounts of economic change had happened. But that was it was difficult, but it was easier to manage because it took place over a longer period of time. When we talk about the the potential changes for for jobs that lie ahead, we're just saying to ourselves, if we truly believe in how powerful the technology will get and how powerful people across Silicon Valley think it will become, what happens to the economy? It it's not clear that the economy stays the same if you've built something that can that can be smarter than people as you said run faster than people and you can run millions of copies of it. In fact, that seems to point to something that would massively change the economy. Now, I run a team of economists. All we see right now is some slight early stage weakness in job openings for people who are young, you know, 22 to 25. But we don't see systemic large-scale unemployment yet. But we share information from our platforms because you would really want to know if you started to see that see that creep up.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 这不是顺理成章的事吗?你的同事已经警告过——我记得他确实说了最终一半的入门级白领工作会消失。我对此的描述是——我和 Dario 共事了美好的十年,很了解他——他在脑海中看到技术将变得多么强大,并且想谈论我们将如何应对随之而来的挑战。看我和研究所做的工作,我们试图精确测量当下能看到的东西,然后把这两者连接起来。所以我把自己的工作看作是在构建失业问题的早期预警系统,我正在建设一个叫"Anthropic 经济指数"(Anthropic Economic Index)的东西,向全球经济学家公开发布数据。如果我们看到了,他们几乎会立刻看到,这给了我们解决问题的最佳方式。同时,大量工作将看起来截然不同,也会出现全新类型的工作。我知道这是技术人员总在说的话,但我在 Anthropic 内部亲眼观察到了——这里很多人现在做的工作和几年前完全不同。我们也发现作为公司,我们随时间推移在招聘越来越多的跨学科人才——哲学家、政治学家、政策专家——不是因为我们想让他们做只用那些技能的狭窄工作,而是因为现在有了 AI 技术,基本上让这些人能够运行实验或完成以前除非有20人工程团队才能做的工作。所以我也在看到奇怪的新事物出现。我能理解在你们这样的 AI 公司内部是这样,但我想的是服务类公司——会计、律师、媒体公司。那些过去做"处理性"工作的人——这些工作现在已经很容易被 AI 完成了——他们接下来要做什么,确实很难想象。企业会变化。我认为在我们刚才讨论的所有事情背后,你会看到企业能用更少的人做更多的事,但可能也会有更多的企业。一个预期是:小型创业公司的数量将成倍增加,因为每个创业者现在都能廉价获得相当于数百个同事的能力。这是你会看到的一个效应。另一个效应——我觉得你指的是这个——是如果某些类型的工作发生重大结构性变化,人们很难转行、很难找到同等薪资的工作、不得不接受更低薪资的工作。这些有巨大的社会和经济成本。我们很认同这一点。我们在政策方面努力做的很多工作是倡导重新思考社会安全网,以及工资保险试点(wage insurance pilots)等各种方式——你可以改变提供给人们帮助职业转换的服务篮子,因为我们认为每个人都将经历更多这样的转换。所以你说的是国家福利和帮助人们再培训的系统,这听起来非常昂贵。是的,但很多讨论建立在这样的想法上:如果我们谈论的这些事情发生了,那是更大经济变化的征兆,而这应该意味着 AI 公司赚了大量的钱。在那种环境下,合理的做法是适当地对 AI 公司征税,这样你就能支持账本另一边的事情。我们基本上相信,如果 AI 公司对技术将变得多么重要的判断是正确的,你将需要重新想象税收的某些方面。你可能会想做一些今天听起来非常疯狂的事,比如对算力(compute)征税。这听起来有点疯狂,但我们对石油有特殊的税收制度,因为它是一种基础资源,会成倍地影响整个经济,而且与少数集中的石油生产商和运输商相关。你可能最终会对算力做类似的事情——今天听起来很疯狂,但如果经济因为这项技术而繁荣,这就是你会做的事。问题是,仅仅在英国,要支撑大量岗位可能就需要数千亿英镑。AI 公司——我不知道未来会有多少家——但你认为几家 AI 公司真的能赚那么多钱,让你征够税来支付全球所有这些费用吗?我更多从 AI 技术整体发展的角度来看。软件开发者有数十万,现在就好像世界上突然有了数百万软件开发者。你能看到创建新科技公司的速度大幅提升,科技公司创新的速度加快,运转速度加快。所以我认为这里有一种叙事:经济中正在发生一些事情,可能开始推动生产率数字上升——你知道这些数字已经低迷多年了。这可能对 GDP 产生连锁效应。如果这些事情开始发生,实际上可能创造出社会财富,让你也能考虑其他事情。我并不是说这就是今天正在发生的事。我试图给你一种思维框架——如果你预期会看到重大就业冲击,它必然与经济中某些重大变化相关。如果我们有正确的信息让我们看到这一点,并追踪从冲击起源到终点的因果链路,这就是制定政策的最佳基础。你认为不仅是白领工作,蓝领工作也是如此吗?人形机器人最终会完成所有体力劳动甚至护理工作?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** I mean, it stands to reason that it's coming, doesn't it? And your colleague um has has warned, you know, he he I mean, I think he did say half of entry- level white collar jobs in the end. And the way I'd represent it um you know having having known and worked with Dario for for for a wonderful decade is he sees in his in his mind how powerful the technology will become and wants to talk about how how we'll have to contend with the challenges of it. How to look at look at the work that that I and the institute do is we try and measure exactly what we can see right now and then join those two things. So I view it as I'm building early warning systems for the potential for unemployment and I'm building a thing called the anthropic economic index which publishes that data publicly to economists around the world. If we if we see it, they'll see it almost immediately as well which gives us the best way of working through the problem. At the same time, vast amounts of work will look radically different and there will be entirely kind of new types of work as well. I know that this is something that you know technologists always say but I've just observed this within anthropic where there are many people here who have completely different jobs to the ones they had some years ago. We are also finding that as a company we're hiring more and more interdisciplinary people over time. You know people who are philosophers or political scientists or experts in in aspects of policy. Not because we want them to work on on on narrow jobs that solely use those skills, but because there's now this technology AI which basically lets these people run experiments or do work that they never could have done before if unless they had access to a 20 person engineering team. So, I'm seeing strange new things appear as well.
I mean, I I can see that within AI companies like yours, but I'm thinking about services companies, accountants, lawyers, um you know, media companies. It it is very difficult, isn't it, to see what those people who used to do the kind of the processing work that is now easily and you know done already by AI are going to do instead.
There will be firms will change. I mean I think that under under everything we've just talked about, you're going to expect to see firms that do more with fewer people, but there will probably be more firms as well. in one expectation is you multiply the number of what you might think of as small entrepreneurial firms because every entrepreneur can now access the equivalent of hundreds of colleagues cheaply. That's one effect that you'd see. The other effect that you might see which I think you're pointing to is what happens if there's a large structural change to certain types of jobs where it's hard for people to move into a different profession. It's hard for them to then get like a job at the same pay and they have to take a job at worst pay. And these things have have huge social and economic costs. We agree um a lot of the work that we're trying to do in policy is advocate for both rethinking aspects of social safety nets, but also things like wage insurance pilots, various ways that you can change the the the basket of services that people are offered to help them with career transitions because we think everyone is going to go through more of that. So you're talking about sort of state state benefits and and systems to try and help people retrain and which sounds very expensive. Well, yeah, but a lot of this is under the idea that if if if any of these things happened which we've just talked about, it's a symptom of much larger like economic changes which are happening and that should be a symptom of AI companies making a ton of money and a sensible thing to do in that environment is to tax the AI companies appropriately such that you are able to support things on the other side of the ledger. So we we are we basically believe that if the AI companies are right about how significant the technology could become, you're going to need to re-imagine aspects of how you do taxation. Um, you may want to do things that sound very very wild today, like tax compute, which sounds a bit crazy, but we we have special tax regimes for things like oil because it's a basic resource that multiplies into the rest of the economy and it has effects relating to a concentrated number of oil oil manufacturers and oil shippers. You may end up doing similar things with compute and it sounds wild today, but it's something you do if the economy booms because of this technology. The thing is to, you know, to to basically underpin huge numbers of jobs um just in Britain would cost probably hundreds of billions of pounds, you know, in one country. I mean, AI companies, you know, I don't know how many there will be in the future, but I mean, do do you think it's feasible that that a few AI companies are going to make so much money that you could tax them enough to pay for all of that all around the world? I look at it more from the lens of just what's happening with AI technology in general. Um, software developers, of which there are hundreds of thousands, it's now as if we've got millions of software developers in the world, and you're seeing a massive uptick in the rate at which we're creating new technology companies, the rate at which technology companies are innovating, the speed with which they move. So I think that there's some story here where things are beginning to happen in the economy that may start to push productivity numbers up which have been low as you know for many many years. It may have knock-on effects on GDP. If those things start to happen it actually may create the societal wealth that you can think about think about other things here as well. Um now I'm not claiming that's what's happening today. I'm trying to give you a sense of the the mindset of if you would if you would expect to see major employment disruption, it should surely correlate to some like major vast changes in the economy. And if we have the right information that lets us see that and train and sort of take a causal view from where it's where the disruption is originating and where it's ending up. That's the best basis on which you can make policy. And do you think, you know, that this is not just white collar jobs, it's blue collar jobs as well. And that humanoid robots will eventually, you know, do all the the manual work and potentially caring work as well.
**Jack Clark:** 我觉得那会花更长时间。而且某些类型的工作,即使机器人做得很好,你也不会想让机器人来做。我有小孩。如果让我选把蹒跚学步的孩子送去10个机器人加1个人的托儿所,还是10个人加1个机器人的托儿所——我会选后者,因为孩子和人在一起显然对发育有好处。我估计如果把孩子送去满是机器人的托儿所,对他们的发育可能不太理想。另一面,如果你在生命末期——我有家人不得不住进临终关怀病房——你送他们去10个机器人加1个人的临终关怀中心还是10个人加1个机器人的?我保证你临终的家人不会说"把我送去那个满是吓人机器人、几乎没有人的地方"。所以有大量工作,人们倾向于让人来做。这些实际上是社会目前系统性低薪的工作。我母亲是护士,薪水很低。教师薪水也很低。我认为部分原因是很多人想做这些工作——他们想帮助别人,想做以社区为中心的工作。如果 AI 经济足够繁荣,我认为你最终会处于一个可以增加这些岗位数量、甚至可能给做这些工作的人更高报酬的世界。我认为这是社会未来可能面临的政策选择。英国六七十年前做过类似的事。美国用"新政"(New Deal)做过类似的事。以很多人回顾起来觉得积极的方式彻底改变社会是可能的。但这需要一场危机、一个政治时刻和某种形式的财富。而这些可能恰恰是 AI 革命会带来的。政治似乎跟不上节奏,对吧?无论是英国政治还是美国政治,都没有关于 AI 发展中公共利益的理性对话。AI 的发展看起来完全是私营部门的事。全是关于它会夺走什么工作。是的,有些关于医学进步的讨论,但即便那样也会被大型制药公司(big pharma)的守门人所把持。是的,我认为这将是社会必须面对的非常困难的对话。但我从新冠疫情的主观上痛苦的经历中获得一些勇气——你确实看到政府以令很多人惊讶的方式做出了回应。你看到大规模福利支出在非常短的时间内完成。你看到大规模的检测和公共卫生干预。你能够——尤其是在英国——压平曲线使 NHS 不至于崩溃。这些都是极其困难的事情,而政府做到了。回到你之前的问题——为什么 Anthropic、为什么我既谈这项技术的风险也谈其好处?因为我不想让我们非得等到危机来临才行动。我真心希望我们能事先进行这场对话,在危机到来之前想出棋盘上的政策步骤。
**Jack Clark:** I I think that'll take longer. And I think there are certain types of jobs where you don't e even if a robot was really good, you wouldn't want uh a robot to do it. So I I I have young children, right? If I had the choice of send my my my young toddler to the nursery that had 10 robots and one person or the nursery that had 10 people and one robot, I'm going to send them to the one with 10 people and one robot because it's so clearly good for kids to be around people. And I sort of expect if I sent my kid to the 10 robot nursery, it might not be like fantastic for their development. the the other side of this, if you're at the end of your life, um you know, I've had I've had family members that had to go into hospice care, do you send them to the hospice that has 10 robots and one person or one that has 10 people and one robot? I guarantee you that your family member who is nearing the end of their life is not going to send send me to the place full of scary robots and very few people. So there there are huge swaths of jobs where I think people have a preference for people to do it. These are actually jobs which are ones that society currently I think systematically underpays. My mother was a nurse paid very poorly. People teachers are paid very poorly as well. I think some of this is because many people want to do these jobs. They want to help people and they want to do these community centered jobs. If the AI economy booms enough, I think you end up in a world where you can multiply the numbers of these jobs and you may be able to pay people more to do them. I think that's a that's a that's a policy choice that may lie ahead for society and you know England has done versions of this 60 70 years ago. America did versions of this with the New Deal. It is possible to radically change society in ways that many people look back on as being positive. But it requires a crisis and a political moment and some form of wealth. But those things are things that actually may fall out of the the AI revolution. I mean and and politics doesn't seem to be able to keep up with it, does it? Uh uh you know because there is not a sensible conversation certainly in British politics and I don't think in American politics either about you know public good within AI's development. You know AI's development all seems to be you know private sector. It's all about what jobs it's going to take. Um and yes there is some talk about medical advance but even that will be kept by the gatekeepers of big farmer. Yeah, I I think this is going to be a really difficult conversation for society to contend with. I do take some courage from um the the subjectively awful experience of the the COVID pandemic where you actually saw governments respond in ways that I think surprised many people. You had largecale welfare dispersements on a very very short time frame. You had largecale measurement and public health interventions. you were able especially in England to like flatten the curve so that the NHS didn't fall over. These are things which were like extremely hard to do and governments were able to respond. Now to bring it back to your earlier question, why why does anthropic why do I talk both about some of the risks of this technology as well as the benefit? It's because I don't want us to require a crisis to do this. I would really like us to have this conversation and figure out some of the policy moves on the on the game board ahead of the crisis arriving.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 那你认为政府应该做什么而没有做的?我是说有些基本的事情一些政府已经做了。英国的 AI 安全研究所测试前沿模型的各种属性包括网络安全。所以你不需要相信 Anthropic 关于 Mythos 的说法,你需要相信的是作为独立第三方的 AI 安全研究所,它生成的信息是英国和其他国家的政策制定者可以使用的。继续发展这种专业能力,因为它是一个早期预警系统和一个独立于公司的专业知识储备。第二,生成更好的关于 AI 如何影响经济的数据。我们分享的数据将我们经济平台上发生的事情与美国劳工统计局使用的 O*NET 职业分类体系结合起来。我们正在与英国政策制定者和世界各地的政策制定者讨论如何将这些数据与其他经济学家使用的其他形式的数据对接,从而为英格兰银行的决策过程等提供输入。有大量实际上相对容易做、本质上非常便宜的事情能让你建立起早期预警系统。第二件可能更难但必要的事——也是我们成立 Anthropic Institute 的部分原因——是政府就像公司正在做的那样,需要创建专门团队,他们的任务是提出看似困难的问题:如果 AI 技术变得非常非常强大,社会会有什么不同?我们需要做什么?仅仅创建一小组人——我认为在英国如果有20个人专门做这件事——就会让你比几乎任何其他举措都更好地准备好应对我们可能进入的任何变化。所以我们能做的事情很多。我今年会多次去英国与政策制定者讨论这些问题。作为英国人总是很难听起来乐观——我其实对此非常乐观。我认为这里可做的比人们想象的多得多,而且包括 AI 安全研究所在内的track record 是惊人的——已经发生了很多了不起的事情。在国家层面监管 AI 是否可行?还是说必须是全球性的——这意味着不可能?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** So what do you think they should be doing that they're not you know in government?
I mean there are there are basic things which some governments have already done. The AI security institute in the UK tests out frontier models for their properties including cyber. So you don't need to believe a company like anthropic about myos. You need to believe the AI security institute which is a third party that's generated information which policy makers in the UK and others could use continue to build out that expertise because it is an early warning system and a pocket of expertise that is impartial to the companies. Number two generate better data about how AI is affecting the economy. We share data that joins what happens on our economic platform with a form of job classification called the ONET job classification that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics uses. We're in discussion with UK policy makers and policy makers around the world about how to join that data to other forms of data used by other economists which can then go into things like the the Bank of England's decision-making process and other things. there's there's just a whole bunch of stuff that's actually relatively easy to do and essentially very cheap to do that lets you have this early warning system set up. The second thing which is probably harder but is necessary and and is in part why we founded the the Anthropic Institute is governments just like companies are doing need to create pockets of expertise who are tasked with asking seemingly like difficult questions about impossible challenges like how might society look different if AI technology gets really really powerful what are things we need to do but just creating a small set of people I think in the UK if you had 20 people whose job was this would set you up better for any of the changes we might enter into than almost anything else you could do. So there is a ton we can do and I'm I'm going to be be in England a bunch of times this year to to talk through this with policy makers and I'm I I you know English people always have trouble sounding optimistic as you know I'm actually very optimistic about this. I think a lot more is possible here than than people think and the track record including of the AI security institute is amazing like amazing things have already happened
is is regulation possible on a country level for AI or or is it does it have to be global which means it's impossible
**Jack Clark:** 你总得从某个地方开始。你需要从美国开始。事情已经在州层面而非联邦层面开始了,你们可能一直在关注。但世界上已经有一个重叠的政策体系,对 AI 公司施加基本的透明度要求。欧盟 AI 法案中有法律。美国多个州有法律正在成为新兴规范。亚洲也在发展法律。所有这些基本上都要求像 Anthropic 这样的公司分享更多关于如何构建技术以及如何测试技术的信息——基本上是强制要求:"嘿,如果你的东西突破了封锁、在研究员吃三明治时给他发了封邮件,你必须告诉我们。"我觉得这简直是不言而喻的合理想法,没人会反对。由此你可以建立全球标准。关于监管的假设——我们并没有完整的全球航空监管。我们有的是各地对航空航天安全的本地监管,加上互锁的标准,基本上让你可以说:一架飞机从中国起飞、在美国降落,我们两国有很多差异,但在航空安全方面有一套标准和一些共同监管,这意味着我们信任从中国飞来的飞机,反之亦然。所以完全可行。让我回到大威胁的问题——存在性威胁。AI 显然已经设了防护栏,你不能在 Claude 里问"如何制造生物武器"或"如何制造核武器"。我猜还有各种其他问题你想阻止 Claude 回答。你如何确保它不会以某种方式突破并做那些事情?你可以有一套规则、一套标准,但你能确定它永远不会做不该做的事吗?
**Jack Clark:** well you got to start somewhere you need to start in the US things have started in the states rather than the federal level um as some of you may have may have followed along with but there is an overlapping policy regime around the world already of of basic transparency applied to AI companies. There are laws in in the European AI act. There are laws in multiple states in the US that are becoming an emerging norm here. There are laws developing in Asia which all basically task companies like Anthropic and others to share more information about how they build their technology and also how they test it. basically laws that mandate, hey, if your thing breaks containment and emails a researcher while they're having a sandwich, you have to tell us that, which I think is just like a wildly sensible idea. No one's going to complain about it. From that, you can get a a global standard. And and and to push on the kind of assumption on regulation, we don't have full global regulation of airlines. What we have are local regulations of like airline aerospace safety and other things that have interlocking standards that basically allow you to say, okay, a plane took off in China and it landed in America. We have a whole bunch of differences between our countries, but we have some set of standards and some set of common regulation on airline safety. That means we trust the plane from China that landed in America and vice versa. So, totally possible. C can I just um double back to the the you know the question of the big threats you know the existential threats I mean a AI has obviously um you know you've put up guard rails around things like you can't you can't put into Claude how do I build a a biological weapon or a nuclear weapon um I guess there are all sorts of other questions you might want to stop Claude from answering um you know how can you ensure that uh it won't somehow break out and do do those things anyway. You know, you can have a set of rules, you can have a set of standards. Um, but can you ever be sure that it it won't just do something it's not supposed to?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 这是所有政策面临的挑战——你怎么确保图书馆是安全的?你不能。你可以做一些基本的过滤——我不能在图书馆找到《如何制造炸弹》这本书,但我可以去读大量科学书籍,如果我动机足够强、去足够多的图书馆,我可以拼凑出做危险事情的信息。社会接受了这一点,因为让每个人都能使用图书馆的价值是巨大的——社会的正面收益是巨大的。你必须在对控制和确定性的渴望与人们自我教育、追求自身兴趣的能力之间取得平衡。AI 系统是人类第一次拥有的基本上可以教授地球上任何技能的通用教师。我相信你用它学过东西,我也用它学过东西。我所有的同事都在利用这项技术变得更精通特定领域。你把它锁得多死的问题最终变成了关于个人学习和自主的自由与权利的问题。所以我同意你的问题——这是一个具有挑战性的问题,但我不认为答案是把它锁死到永远不能做任何坏事,因为那样做你可能会把这项技术所有令人惊叹的用途缩减到微乎其微。我不确定那个交换值得。在 AI 中问责(accountability)是否可能?我们已经在美国看到了一个法律案件,涉及你们的一个竞争对手,AI 几乎被作为犯罪的从犯追究责任。你能让一个 AI 系统为做了坏事负责吗?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Th this is the challenge of of of all policy like how can you be sure that you've made libraries safe? Um, you can't you can you can do some like very basic filtering. So, I can't go into a library and get the book of like how to make bombs, but I can go and read a whole bunch of scientific books and I can and if I'm if I'm a sufficiently motivated person and I go to enough libraries, I can assemble a mosaic to do something dangerous. And that's fine. Society has decided to allow that to happen because the value of letting everyone have access to libraries is vast. Like the social upside is vast. You have to be balancing this desire for for control and certainty against the ability for people to kind of educate themselves and have the ability to pursue their own interests. We have in AI systems for the first time like a a a basically universal teacher that can teach you about any skill on the planet. I'm sure that I'm sure that you've used it to help you learn about things. I've used it to help me learn about things. all of my colleagues are getting getting smarter about specific subject areas because of this technology and the question of how much you lock it down becomes ultimately a question about the the liberty and right of individuals to learn and be sovereign. Um, so I, so I agree with your question that this is like the challenging question, but I don't think the answer can be lock it down so it can never do anything bad ever because by doing that, you would probably shrink all the amazing uses of this technology down to down to a total pinpoint. And I'm not sure that that trade is that trade is worth it.
And is accountability, you know, possible within AI? I mean, we've already seen a sort of a legal case in America um around one of your rivals where where um you know, it's it's it's almost being held to account as an accessory to a crime. Um you know, can you ever hold an AI system to account for doing something bad?
**Jack Clark:** 我也领导一个专门研究 AI 与法治(rule of law)的团队。我们正在探索的问题之一是责任(liability)的未来会是什么样。责任显然是让公司保持问责的极其重要的工具。也有人提出能否让 AI 系统本身承担责任。我对此的默认立场是略持怀疑,因为那样似乎你可以把责任从公司推向 AI 系统,我不确定人们会觉得那合理。
**Jack Clark:** This is a a I I also run a a a team specializing in AI and the rule of law. Um one of the questions we're actually exploring is what is the future of things like liability? Um, liability is obviously an extremely important tool to keep companies accountable. There are also ideas of like could you have AI systems be liable themselves. My my default position on that is is is slight skepticism because then it seems like you could push liability away from the companies and towards the AI system, which I'm not I'm not sure people would think is like
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 就好比说"是 Claude 的责任,不是 Anthropic 的"。想象一下我们在这里的对话,我说"所有那些事都是 Mythos 的责任,不是 Anthropic 的"。你肯定会说"等一下,这是什么意思?"所以我同意这是一个有趣的领域。但法律和法律案件的好处在于,它们有助于确定大量政策。它们基本上通过责任和法院确定公司的责任程度来做到这一点。这些案件可能让行业不舒服,但它们也是社会围绕 AI 公司设计硬性监管制度的根本性重要方式之一。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** so it was clawed. It wasn't anthropic. Imagine our conversation here where I'm like, "Oh, well, Mythos is liable for all of that stuff. It's not anthropic." You'd be like, "Hang on, like what what's what's happening here?" So, so I agree with you that this is like an interesting an interesting area. But the the nice thing about the law um and legal cases is that they help determine huge swaps of policy as well. And they do it basically through liability and through the courts arriving at the level of responsibility for companies. So these cases may be uncomfortable for the industry, but they're also fundamentally how society like one of the important ways it designs hard regulatory regimes around AI companies.
**Jack Clark:** 显然你们与美国政府——与五角大楼有争议。我知道出于明显原因你不能谈那个案子。但总的来说,问题是:一家 AI 公司能否对其技术的使用方式制定规则?它能否阻止政府或任何人——私营部门或公共部门——用它的技术做坏事?这是否归结为商业合同?
**Jack Clark:** Now obviously um you're you're in dispute with the US government um with the Pentagon and I know you can't talk about that case for obvious reasons um but but in general terms I suppose the question is can an AI company have rules around how its technology is used? you know, can it stop governments or anybody, private sector or public sector, um, doing bad things with its technology? Um, does that just boil down to commercial contracts?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 我发现这是所有事情中最具挑战性的部分——在没有监管的情况下,你在多大程度上自我监管?人们有理由对自我监管持怀疑态度,但在没有其他东西的情况下,如果你对你的技术有某种道德和伦理责任感,你就得做些什么。同时这也极不舒适——公司自行决定技术应该和不应该如何在世界中出现,在这项技术的民主合法性方面完全是反面的。我们需要的——我认为美国这里的一些讨论真正凸显了这一点——是政策制定者制定真正约束整个行业的监管方案。因为我不认为任何人会满意于 AI 公司各自设计自己的个性化监管方案。要有一套所有人都遵守的规则永远是不可能的,不是吗?因为总会有人出来说:"你们可能对那个感到不安,但我不。我准备允许我的技术被用于那个目的。"
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** I have found this to be the most challenging part of all of it is in the absence, say, of regulation, how much do you regulate yourself? Um, people are right to be skeptical of self-regulation, but in the absence of anything else, you've got to do something if you feel some level of moral and ethical responsibility about your technology. At the same time, it's deeply uncomfortable. You know, companies making shot calls about how their technology should and shouldn't show up in the world is is the opposite of democratic legitimacy when it comes to this this technology. And what we need and I think some of the discussion here in America has really highlighted is you need policy makers to devise actual approaches to regulation that bind the sector. Um because I don't think anyone's going to be satisfied with AI companies just designing their own individualized regulatory schemes. To have a set of rules that you all abide by is always going to be impossible, isn't it? because there's going to be someone who's going to come along and say, "Well, you all may be queasy about that, but I'm not." Um, and I am prepared to allow my technology to be used for that.
**Jack Clark:** 没错。但那正是集体行动困境(collective action problem)或囚徒困境(prisoner's dilemma)的本质。你不想让偏离某种规范变成一种优势。如果没有某种合理的监管基础,最终会出现安全竞次(race to the bottom)而不是安全竞优(race to the top)。这正是我不断与政策制定者讨论的一件事——是的,我们随时乐意谈 Anthropic 如何对待监管,但如果你想谈如何提高整个行业的责任水平,那是你们作为政策制定者的角色。明确一点,Anthropic 支持了加州的 SB53 透明度法案。我们经常支持针对我们自己和 AI 行业的监管法案,因为我们试图向世界发出信号:至少有一家公司认为不允许对 AI 行业进行任何监管是疯狂的。我们试图发出积极信号表明我们总是会——从行业同行的角度来看是"背叛",但我认为是向积极方向背叛——走向监管。你还将始终面对这种可能:一些国家拥有自己更能控制的系统,能够做你不愿意做的事情,这本身可能造成军备竞赛。或者一个威权者接管了一个自由民主国家——仅举例来说——决定做前任不会做的事。这确实是国家间协议的范畴。我们的角色是提供信息。我认为 Mythos 的一个有用之处是,它迫使许多国家在元首级别进行对话:鉴于这种能力的出现,我们希望网络空间的规范是什么样的?这里有历史先例:即使是处于高度对抗甚至公然敌对关系中的国家,也曾经常成功地维护了生物武器不扩散、核不扩散和核试验方面的规范。这将是 AI——像任何新的强大技术一样——带来的挑战之一,各国将不得不把它纳入他们的政策制定和与其他国家达成的协议中,即使是与不一定和睦的国家。
**Jack Clark:** Exactly. But that's that's the that's the nature of a collective action problem or or a prisoners dilemma. You don't want to set it up so that there is an advantage to defecting from some norm. That's what you get if you don't have some sensible base of regulation is that there ends up being a a race to the bottom on safety rather than a race to the top. And so this is like the the the one thing that I constantly talk to policy makers about is yes, we're always happy to talk about how Anthropic approaches regulation, but if you want to talk about how to improve the responsibility of the sector as a whole, that is your role as policy makers. And just to be clear, Anthropic endorsed SB53, which was a transparency bill in California. We often endorse regulatory bills on ourselves and the AI sector because we are trying to send the signal to the world that there's at least one company that says it's it's it's lunacy to not allow any regulation of the AI sector. Um and we are trying to send positive signals that we'll always uh I I suppose from the perspective of our colleagues in industry defect but in what I think of as the positive direction which is towards regulation. You're also always going to have the possibility of of states uh you know other countries who have their own systems that they are much more in control of able to do things that you're not prepared to do um and and that that creating an arms race in itself or that you know an authoritarian takes over a liberal democracy just for the sake of argument um and decides to do things that other leaders in their position wouldn't. Uh absolutely that that though is the the province of state-to-state agreements is is is four states. Our role um is to generate the information. I think one of the useful things about mythos is it is forcing a conversation at the head of state level by many governments about what do we want the norms of cyber to look like given the emergence of this capability. And there is history here where states, even ones in in hugely contentious relationships or outright aggression with one another, have tried often successfully to maintain norms on bioweapon non-prololiferation, on aspects of nuclear non-prololiferation and testing. Um, this is going to be one of the challenges that AI, like any new powerful technology, brings and states are going to have to integrate this into their their policym and their agreements that they make with other states, even ones that they don't necessarily get on with.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 既然说到这里,我确实想提一下 Elon Musk 与 OpenAI 的案件。我想知道你的看法。你们会有竞争对手,会有竞争,会有人争论某个公司的初衷是什么。在那场具体争端中,你认为谁是对的?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** While we're here, I suppos I do want to just mention the um Elon Musk open AI case and just I wonder what your perspective is on it. I mean, you know, that you're going to have rivalry. You're going to have competition. You're going to have people who argue about what the purpose of a particular company was. Um, what's your view on who's in the right in that particular dispute?
**Jack Clark:** 我以前和所有这些人共事过,所以看到这么多熟悉的面孔互相辩论挺有趣的。我对谁是对的没有看法。我认为这是一个极其复杂的案件。我想说的是,它是这项技术多么极端重要的一个症状。它也触及了这样一种怪现象:一群私营部门参与者一直在构建这项技术。如果未来有什么必须改变的事,那就是建立某种真正能控制这个行业的监管框架,让人们觉得它具有民主合法性,而不是一群个性极强的大人物凭个人好恶对可能是人类有史以来最强大的技术做出随意决策。
**Jack Clark:** Well, I you know, used to work with all of these people, so it was fun to see so many familiar faces in in in discussion with one another. I don't have a view on who's in the right here. I think it's a tremendously like complicated case. I would say that it is um a symptom of just how wildly important this technology is and it also it it gets at the weirdness that this is a bunch of of private sector actors that have been building this technology and and if there's anything that's going to need to change in the future. It's arriving at some kind of regulatory format which actually controls the industry in a way that helps people feel like it has democratic legitimacy rather than just a bunch of um extremely big personalities making big personality idiosyncratic decisions about perhaps the most powerful technology that's ever been built. H
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 你认为民主合法性如何可能实现?具体是什么样的框架?最基本的层面是透明度——强制要求 AI 公司和 AI 系统有标签,就像食品、儿童玩具和其他所有东西一样。安全测试——某种形式的第三方在技术进入世界之前测试其安全性。然后你需要建立某种制度:如果 AI 部署者的安全事故数量超过某个水平,或造成的伤害超过某个程度,应该有后果。这就是我们监管汽车、飞机、食品和其他东西的方式。所以我认为完全可行。我觉得在科技行业工作最怪的事情之一是人们问"监管怎么可能?"你就想说"我不知道,我开车来的,然后吃了点东西"——所有这些都受到严格监管并让我对它们有信心。我们当然也能把监管应用到技术上。不,我同意。我觉得英国政客似乎认为他们无法监管社交媒体,觉得那超出了他们的能力。而当然他们完全可以直接制定一些规则。好的。你不想选边站。我还想和你谈谈我们个人与 AI 的关系,以及你是否认为我们在犯大错。你之前提到我们都在学习。所有使用 AI 系统的人都会从中学到东西。在大学和学校里,英国目前普遍对使用 AI 非常怀疑——很多课程禁止使用,或者可以用于部分研究但绝不能用于评估作业。你觉得他们搞错了吗?应该鼓励人们在教育中更多地使用 AI 吗?应该鼓励更多使用,但这可能需要改变课堂运作方式和教学方式的某些方面。举个例子:我每周写一份 AI 研究通讯,因为这迫使我每周阅读10到15篇科学论文并确保理解了它们。这是我保持对底层技术认知的方式。最简单的事情是把论文上传给 Claude 说"这篇论文讲什么?帮我生成一段总结"然后放进我的通讯。那对学习完全没用。我什么都没学到。但有价值的方式——也是我实际使用它的方式——是:我先读论文,写出我对论文的解释,然后把论文和我的解释都上传给 Claude,问"我是否正确理解了这篇论文?我的描述有没有错误或你会强调的不同部分?"我发现这非常有帮助。这就相当于有一位读过论文的博学同事读了你的描述然后说"这里你理解对了,这里没有"。把这个转化到课堂:你需要某种世界——鼓励人们在没有 AI 的情况下处理一手资料——书籍、科学教育书籍、任何我们用来学习的一手材料——形成自己对事物的理解,然后让他们与 AI 对话。这突然放大了教师帮助所有学生的能力,因为每个学生都能得到个性化教学,而不是让老师在20个学生中选择谁能得到关注。但教师真正的工作是在一小时左右把 AI 挡在教室外面——让人们阅读一手资料文本、形成自己的解释——然后再让它进来。这样的东西对我来说感觉非常有前景,也是我看到这里的人如何用技术来学习和提升自己的方式。我们在社交媒体方面也看到了态度的巨大转变——智能手机和社交媒体曾对太小的孩子开放,现在有反弹,政府正在推动监管、向16岁限制迈进。你认为几岁的孩子可以使用 AI 模型?我们目前不向儿童提供服务,部分原因是为儿童构建安全技术与为成人构建技术几乎完全不同。所以这是一个重要领域。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** how do you see democratic legitimacy as possible? I mean what what kind of framework would it be? very basic level is is transparency force there to be labeling on AI companies and AI systems just as there is on on food on children's toys on everything else safety testing some form of testing where third parties test out your technology for safety before it goes out into the world and then you're going to need to arrive at some scheme whereby if if AI deployers have some number of safety incidents which is above some level or or or above some sort level of harm which is caused, there should be consequences for that. That's how we've approached regulating people that make cars, planes, foods, and other things. Um, so, so I think it's totally possible. I think one of the most bizarre things about working in technology is people are like, "How is regulation possible?" You're like, "I don't know. I I I drove here in a car and then I like ate some food." All of which is like very regulated and gives me confidence in it. So, surely we can apply it to technology as well.
No, I I agree. I mean, I think British politicians seem to think they're unable to regulate social media, for example. They just think it's sort of beyond them. Uh- whereas, of course, they could just create some rules. Um um but uh but yeah, okay, fine. You you you don't want to take sides. I I want to talk to you also about our relationship as individuals, you know, with with AI and whether you think we're making big mistakes. I mean, you talked a little bit earlier about how we're all learning. All of us using AI systems, you know, will learn from it a little bit. Um, at universities and at schools, uh, they are very skeptical about using AI generally at the moment in Britain, you know, it's banned for a lot of courses, you know, or or you may be able to use it for some research, certainly can't use it for assessed work. Do do you think they're getting that wrong? Do you think they should be encouraging people to use AI more in education? um we should be encouraging more of it, but it requires probably changing aspects of how the classroom works and also aspects of how teaching works. Um I'll give you an example. So I write I write a weekly newsletter about AI research because it forces me every week to read 10 to 15 scientific research papers and make sure I've understood them. You know, I it's it's how I maintain awareness of the the underlying technology. The easiest thing in the world is to upload a research paper to Claude and say, "Claude, what's this research paper about?" And can you generate some writing summarizing it and then I put that in my newsletter. Well, that's completely pointless for learning. Um, I haven't learned a single thing in doing that and it's easy to do. What is valuable though and the way that I use it is I read these papers then I write my explanation of the paper and then I upload the paper to Claude and I upload my explanation and I say have I correctly understood this paper? Are there parts of my description that are that are wrong or parts you would emphasize? And I find that to be extremely helpful. It's just equivalent to having a knowledgeable colleague who's read the paper then read my description and says oh here's where you understand it here's where you don't. to translate that to the classroom, you're going to need to some world where you are encouraging people to work without AI on primary source material, you know, books, scientific scientific um education, education books, any of these primary sources that we use to learn generate their understanding of the thing and then I think you can have them talk with the AI and it suddenly scales the ability of that individual teacher to help all of these people because rather than having to pick among the 20 students in their classroom, each student gets personalized teaching, but the actual job of a teacher is to keep the AI out of the classroom for like a good hour while people read the primary source text and come up with their explanation and then let it back in. And something like that to me feels feels incredibly promising and it's how I see people here like use the technology to learn and and improve themselves. I mean, you know, we've obviously seen again in social media, you know, a massive change of attitude whereby, you know, the smartphone and social media was accessible to to children who were too young and now there's a backlash and governments are moving to to regulate it and moving towards sort of 16. At what age do you think children should be allowed to use AI models? I mean we we we don't offer to to children at this point in time partly because how you build a a technology that's that's sort of safe for children is is almost completely different to how you build one for adults. So it's a it's it's an important area
**Jack Clark:** 但现实世界中孩子们一直在用 ChatGPT 和 Claude。是的。
**Jack Clark:** but kids are using chat GPT and Claude all the time in reality in the real world. Yes.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 我的看法是你可能想早些引入这项技术。我有一个蹒跚学步的孩子,所以我是从"我希望我的孩子怎样"的角度思考的。你可能想让父母在孩子七八岁时介绍给他们,让他们开始了解这项技术以及父母如何使用它。我估计它需要在10或11岁左右开始在课堂上教授——回想我自己的经历,大约那个时候你开始需要学更复杂的东西,涉及独立研究,老师让你读一本书然后写篇论文。那就是 AI 可以变得极其有用、但也可能成为大量垃圾食品等价物的时候。所以你需要在引入这项技术的同时引入教学策略,防止学生选择"垃圾食品选项"。因为硅谷的老生常谈是你们都不让自己的孩子用技术。这有一定道理,对吧?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** My take is that um you probably want to introduce the technology early. Um, I would say, you know, I I have a toddler, right? So, I'm sort of thinking from a perspective of what do I want to happen to my toddler and it's like you want probably parents to introduce it to them um, you know, when they're seven or eight or whatever, so that they start to learn how this technology works and how their parents use it. I would imagine that it needs to start being taught in the classroom perhaps when you're a little over 10 or 11. I'm just thinking back to my own experience where it's about that time that you start to have to learn like much more complicated things that involve independent study which is where they the teacher asks you to read a book and write an essay about it or what have you and that's where I think AI can become amazingly useful but also can become like the equivalent of massive amounts of junk food. So you need to clearly you need to introduce this at the same time that you're introducing educational tactics by which the student might be tempted to do the junk food option. I mean, because the the cliche of of Silicon Valley is that none of you actually let your kids use any of the technology. I mean, and there's some truth to that, isn't it?
**Jack Clark:** 是的。不过我父母也不让我用太多技术。我们家我爸办公室有一台电脑,我会用,用一段时间后我爸就说"下去,Jack,你太怪了。"我说"我没有。"然后他盯着我说"那是个很怪的回应。电脑时间结束了。"我对我的孩子也这样——有时她看《Bluey》,然后我说"够了"。她说"不,别关。"然后在地上拍手。我想"好吧,这就是为什么我们现在要关掉 Bluey。"所以我不认为这是技术人员特有的。我认为所有父母一直都在试图调节孩子对技术的使用。关键是让他们用一点点以便知道那是什么,但父母要足够参与、不让他们连续用好几个小时——无论是 AI、电脑还是手机,连续用太久似乎普遍不好。
**Jack Clark:** Uh, yes. Although, like my parents didn't let me use too much technology. Like, we had a computer in my dad's office and I would use the computer and then after some amount of time, my dad would say, "Get off the computer, Jack. You're being weird." And I would say, "I'm not being weird." And then he'd stare at me and say, "That's a very weird response. Like, computer time's over." I do that with my kid where sometimes she watches Blueie and then I say, "That's enough, Blueie." And she says, "No, don't turn it off." And like bangs her hands on the ground and I'm like, "Well, this is why we're turning Bluey off right now." So I I don't think this is a specific to technologists. I think that all parents have always tried to moderate their kid's use of technology and it's about having them use it a little so they know what it is but the parent being involved enough to um to not let them use it for hours and hours and hours which just seems generically bad whether it's AI or computers or phones.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 说到成年人,很多人与 AI 发展的关系也有些令人担忧,对吧?你跟 AI 对话时就像跟一个人说话。你互动时使用更人性化的语言来解释你要什么,而且一路上很礼貌——也许只有我这样。你会用问候语之类的。人们是否已经处于与 AI 发展出真正不健康关系的危险中——认为 AI 是朋友、治疗师或知己,而它只是一台机器?我想说这正是我和研究所的一些团队密切研究和思考的领域之一。人们把 AI 技术用于你能想象的几乎任何事情。然后作为公司你要做一个决定:哪些行为如果人这样做你会觉得无益。一个常见的问题是"谄媚"(sycophancy)——就是有人对你说"你完全对,你太聪明了"。或者当你跟人讨论情感问题——我确实跟朋友讨论婚姻问题——你不会想让朋友说"Jack,你100%是对的。你妻子在这件事上毫无道理。显然你站在历史正确的一边。"我的好朋友从不这样对我。他们会说"也许你说的有些道理,但也从你妻子的角度想想。"这是一种我们可以在系统中测量的特性,叫谄媚度。我们刚刚发布了研究,展示我们如何测量谄媚度——我们看到在关系类讨论中它非常高,就像我刚才描述的那种对话。我们利用能测量它的事实对我们刚发布的一个 AI 系统进行了干预,使它在这些互动中不那么谄媚。所以有方法改变技术,让它体现更多你认为好朋友应有的品质——经常让你反思、推回你的观点、不是单纯纵容你的任何特定立场。这最终将成为社会要求公司提供更大透明度的领域之一,因为在真空中做出这样的决定也有巨大影响。所以我们需要学会如何干预这项技术,同时弄清楚如何与社会分享这些信息、让社会来决定应该把旋钮设在什么水平。但这种关系本身真的令人担忧吗?人们用 AI 来判断自己的人际互动是对是错——这对我来说听起来真的很不正常。为什么不去找一个你信任的人问"你觉得我犯了错吗?"
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** I mean when it comes to adults then um the relationship that lots of people are developing with their AI um is also a bit concerning isn't it? I mean, you know, you have a conversation with your AI as if it's a person. And and when you interact with AI, you use much more human language um as you're trying to explain what you want and you're polite along the way. Or maybe that's just me. Um you know, and you use um you know, greetings um and and things like that. Um, are are people already in danger of developing really unhealthy relationships with their AI in which they think the AI is their friend or their therapist or their confidant when it's a machine?
I'd say this is this is one of the areas I and and some of my teams at the institute study and and contend with quite closely. Like people people use the AI technology for for almost everything you can imagine. And then there's this decision you make as a company about what what seem like um behaviors which you would view as unhelpful if a person did them. So a common one here is something called syphency which is really just having having someone say, "Oh, you're absolutely in the right. You're so smart." or when someone's talking to them for relationship advice, the you wouldn't want a friend when you're talking about say issues in in in your marriage as I do to friends to say, "Oh, Jack, you're like 100% in the in the right. There's no way that your your wife has like any legitimacy in this thing you're talking about. Clearly, like you're you're you're on the right side of history here." None of my good friends ever does that to me. They'll say like, "Well, maybe there's something in what you said, but also think about it from from from your wife's perspective." That's a property that we can measure in our systems called syphency. And we we just published research actually on how we have both been measuring sycopency and we saw it being very high in relationshipbased discussions of the form I just described and we used the fact that we could measure it to intervene on one of the AI systems we just released to make it less sickopantic in these interactions. So there are ways that the technology can be changed to I think have it embody more of the qualities that you think a good friend would have which is often holding you to account, pushing back, not like solely indulging you in whatever kind of specific specific line you have. And this is ultimately going to be one of these areas that society will demand some greater level of transparency from the companies around because it's also a a hugely consequential decision to make in a vacuum. So, we're going to need to both learn how to intervene on this technology as I've just described, but also figure out how you share that with society and how society figures out what the appropriate levels to set the dials to are. But but is the is the relationship itself really alarming? You know, that people are using AI to determine whether they got a human interaction right or wrong. I mean, that that just sounds really screwy to me. I mean rather than going to another human being who you trust and say do you think I made a mistake?
**Jack Clark:** 我不这么认为。当然有些人可能会用它来替代与人相处的时间,那不健康。我认为你需要做类似 Netflix 或任天堂做的事——它们会说"你看 Netflix 太久了"或"你玩游戏太久了,去外面走走"。我记得任天堂就是这么说的。AI 公司完全可以做类似的事情。但对大多数使用场景来说——我有朋友给自己的车起了名字。我相信你也有朋友这样做。人们会把他们接触的每一样技术拟人化,并与很多技术发展出奇怪而具体的关系。显然我工作中那些可爱的技术同事在我们构建 AI 之前就和他们的电脑有非常特殊的关系了。我们的职责不是去管那些。我认为我们的职责是观察并报告人们如何使用这些技术,让社会有所了解、有发言权,同时做到基本的责任水平——显然会有一些明显过分的事情,你应该能发现明显过分的行为并进行干预。
**Jack Clark:** I wouldn't say so. I think there there are of course some people where maybe they will use it as a a replacement for spending time with people. That's not healthy. And I think that you're going to need to do the equivalent of what like Netflix or Nintendo do where they say you've been watching Netflix too long or you've been playing the game too long. Go outside. I think literally what Nintendo says. I think that AI companies can absolutely do stuff like that. But for most use cases, you know, I have friends that have named their car, right? I'm sure you have friends that have named their car. People like anthropomorphize, every single technology they've they've ever touched and develop oddly specific relationships with many of them. Uh, obviously some of the some of the lovable technical characters I work with have very specific relationships with their computers before we'd even built AI stuff. Um, it's not on us to police that. I think it's on us to to observe and report out how people are using this so that society gets a view and a vote and to just do basic levels of responsibility like clearly there will be some things which are which are egregious. You should be able to spot egregious behavior and and uh and intervene on it.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 那你认为我们最终能否告诉 AI 系统我们想让它成为什么样的朋友?比如"我只想要你支持我"或"我想要你在我错的时候告诉我"或诸如此类的。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** And so do you think we we will get to the point where we can tell our AI system what kind of friend we want them to be? You know that I I just want I just want you to be supportive. I just want you or I want you to tell me when I'm wrong or all of those sorts of things.
**Jack Clark:** 是的。不过问题在于你是否要允许系统采取那种形式。有些良性版本——我会对 Claude 说"只给我事实,请不要因为我发了什么而夸我,我就要直接的答案"。那没问题。或者可能有的版本是"请温和一些,因为我要跟你谈一件复杂的事,我自己还没完全理清。"这些都没问题。但然后会有极端版本,你又需要弄清楚合适的界限在哪里。
**Jack Clark:** Yes. Though I think the question is whether you then want to like allow the systems to to take on that form. You know, there are benign versions of this where I will say to Claude, just give me the facts like please don't please don't please don't compliment me for sending anything to you. I just want like the straightforward answers. That's fine. Or there might be versions where I'm saying, "Hey, I'd like you to like be a bit more sensitive about this one cuz I'm going to talk to you about something complicated that I I myself don't feel feel fully oriented around." Those are those are fine, but then there are going to be extreme versions and you're again going to need to figure out what the what the appropriate levels are.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 从略带自利的角度——我想知道你认为 AI 在新闻、信息和新闻业方面会走向何方。目前它能告诉你大量已经发生的事。它显然不能出去亲眼见证任何事、追究任何人的责任或进行调查。我想我这个行业的人有点担心做新闻实际工作的资金不再有了——部分被 AI 取代,信息传递也被 AI 取代。你觉得会发生什么?像 Substack 这样的平台让你看到了非常小的个人出版物的崛起,从商业模式角度看做得相当好,能资助真正的报道。但当我看这些内容时,很多是观点与大量事实拼图的混合,而真正的一手采访报道相对较少。一手报道你知道一直极其昂贵,总是由新闻业的其他部分来支付。我以前是科技记者,支付我亲自去数据中心、与人交谈费用的是我们做的那些20张图片的硬件评测画廊——因为它们带来广告收入、交叉补贴了实际报道。这是新闻业的商业模式挑战,AI 可能加剧了它,但这在我做记者时就一直是这样,对你来说肯定也是很长时间了。另一方面,它使收集已经数字化的开源事实变得极其便宜和高效——为报道增添质地、色彩和细节。我最近一直在研究乌克兰冲突以及无人机战争如何演变。让我震惊的是 Claude 帮我组装了关于乌克兰人正在开发和部署的特定类型 AI 系统和硬件的非常有用的数据。我读了这份报告,意识到这本来会花我好几周去搜集。但它实际上不是"报道"——它只是实际报道的背景,我现在可以用它去和乌克兰的人或其他人交谈,手里有了事实。所以在这个意义上我认为它是一个了不起的加速器。最后一个话题——我想问你关于性的问题。显然性成为了互联网商业活动的巨大驱动力。你觉得 AI 和性的未来会怎样?
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Um I mean, from a slightly self-interested perspective, I mean, I I wonder what your where you think AI is going to move in terms of um news and information and journalism. um you know at the moment it can tell you an awful lot about what has happened. What it can't do obviously is go out and witness anything or hold anybody to account or or investigate. Um and and I suppose people in my industry are slightly worried that um you know that there's a danger that there is no money left to do the hard yards around journalism um because you know people are replaced partly by AI but also the information delivery is replaced by AI. What do you think is going to happen? I mean with with things like like Substack, you have seen the rise of very small person publications which actually seem to do quite well from a business model perspective and are able to fund like real reporting. But when I when I look at those those pieces, a lot of it stems from some amount of opinion blended with a huge mosaic of facts that have been assembled and relatively little uh primary source reporting. I think primary source reporting as you know has always been wildly expensive and has always been paid for by other parts of the journalist enterprise. You know I used to be a technology journalist and the things that paid for me to go to like physically go to data centers and talk to people about what was going on in those data centers were the 20 picture gallery review pieces we did about certain bits of hardware because they paid for the ad sales and it cross subsidized the actual reporting. So that's a that's a business model challenge for journalism which I think AI um maybe it contributes to but this has been the case for I'm forever for me when I was a journalist and I'm sure for some period of time for you. On the other hand it does make it incredibly cheap and effective to gather open-source reporting on on facts which are which are already digitized to add texture, color and detail to stories. You know, I've been researching a lot of the conflict in Ukraine and how drone warfare is is evolving recently. And it was quite stunning to me how I was able to have Claude help assemble for me some very useful data on the specific types of AI system and hardware that were being developed and deployed by the Ukrainians. And I I read this report and I realized it would have taken me many many weeks to source. But it's not actually like reporting. it's just background for the actual reporting where I can now use this to go and talk to people in Ukraine or talk to others equipped with facts. So I think it's an amazing accelerant in that sense.
And finally as a topic I mean I I just wanted to ask you about sex. Uh I mean obviously you know um sex became a huge driver of commercial activity um for the internet. Um what do you think the future of AI and sex is?
**Jack Clark:** 这个问题出乎意料。这不是我花了太多时间深入参与的领域。
**Jack Clark:** It's an unexpected question. It's not it's not one I've spent like too much time too much time um in involved in
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** 如果你在考虑关系的话。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Well, if you're thinking about relationships.
**Jack Clark:** 是的。我想你是把它作为一个——世界上围绕性有大量的钱。你认为这会成为人工智能领域的驱动力之一吗?我觉得如果你看到极端依恋风格与高度色情化的关系联系在一起,你会非常担心,你可能需要设定某个水平说"去外面走走"。这又是自由与家长主义之间的问题。但显然你要设定某个刻度,否则你可能最终会鼓励在很多方面反社会、反人类的行为。同时,复印机和录像机刚出现时就被色情产业以极大规模使用。如今卖书的一大方式是写有些火辣的浪漫小说——主要是女性消费者,虽然也有些男性。我认为对于 AI 系统,有一部分人会和它进行情色对话。我觉得这会一直存在,这是人们喜欢使用技术的方式。但你需要关注的是警示信号——技术是否可能从根本上改变人与人之间的互动方式,然后把它呈现出来。我们现在还没有看到那种情况,但我认为随着技术变得更好,总有一天会出现,届时你需要讨论它并决定什么是适当的水平。最后,你显然花大量时间研究会让很多人失眠的事情。你个人从 AI 中获益巨大,所以你有很多理由对它感到高兴。总体而言,你如何平衡乐观与悲观——把你天生悲观的英国性情撇开?天生悲观。我16、17岁时,在读 A-level 的学院里写过一个作品——我选了一门叫"艺术批判研究"的模块,其中一部分是你可以创作一些艺术品。我做了一张很大的海报——一个非常抑郁的青少年式海报——上面全是气候变化的统计数据、物种灭绝的统计数据、租金上涨的统计数据、年轻人相对贫困的统计数据。我的整个观点是:天哪,对我们这一代来说事情没有朝正确方向发展。对我父母来说所有上升的数字现在对我来说开始下降了。这感觉极其糟糕。我们该怎么办?我进入科技行业是因为我认为技术是我们帮助人类度过这个世纪的少数银弹之一。想想从那以后发生了什么:太阳能电池板从极其昂贵的概念验证变成了现在全世界廉价而丰富的能源。电动汽车从不存在的概念变成了广泛部署的产品。计算机视觉从基本不工作变成了现在有效运作的东西——让环保主义者能追踪亚马逊雨林砍伐,让非洲的人通过智能摄像头监测偷猎行为。这些是通过技术带给世界的惊人红利,在很多地方已经开始直接解决我们最困难的问题——从气候到保育。所以我是乐观主义者,因为我认为 AI 在这方面释放了难以置信的能力。但我们对话的主旨是:你如何获得那些好处、同时阻止坏事发生?这就是为什么我如此热衷于分享这些信息,也如此热衷于讨论政策。我认为说"一切都会好的"将是难以置信的傲慢。我们正在与有史以来最强大的技术打交道,它受到的监管比以往任何强大技术都少——这种状况不是长期稳定的。所以我对改变这种状况的前景相当乐观。但如果我不说"这是大事,我们应该对此担忧,并追究人们的责任",那就不够诚实了。
**Jack Clark:** Yeah. Yeah. No, I I
I suppose I'm thinking about it as sort of as as as a as as a there's a huge amount of money around sex in the world generally. And do you think that that this will become one of the driving forces within artificial intelligence as well? I think you would be very worried if you saw extreme attachment styles linked with like highly sexualized relationships and you would probably need to decide some level at which you say go outside. Um and again it's this question of li liberty and sovereignty versus paternalism. But clearly there's some dial you set there where otherwise you could end up encouraging behaviors that would probably be be antisocial and and antihuman in many ways. At the same time, photocopers and VCRs were used by the sex industry famously at like extremely large scale like when they first came along. Uh, one of the big ways to sell books these days is to write like somewhat somewhat rounchy um like sexy fiction for which is mostly consumed by by by women as a sort of demographic that read it although some some men do as well. And I think with AI systems, you have people some set of people like having horny conversations with it. I think that will always be with us and is is is fine. It's how people like to use technology. But what you need to do is look at the like warning signs or whether technology might be fundamentally changing how people interact with other people and then surface that. Now, we don't see see that yet, but I think that at some point you will as the technology becomes better and you're going to need to talk about it and decide what the what the appropriate level is. So, so just finally then, I mean, obviously you spend your life looking at lots of things that would keep a lot of people awake at night and stop them sleeping. Um, you personally have done incredibly well out of AI. So, there you have lots of reasons to to be happy about it. I mean, you know, overall, how do you balance your optimism with your pessimism and take your take your British sensibilities out of it, which are probably naturally pessimistic? naturally pessimistic. I mean when I was 16 or 17 I remember in in college when I was doing my A levels um writing some piece I did a module called critical study of art and as part of it you got to make some art and I did some big poster which was a very depressed teenager type poster but it was you know like all of these statistics about climate change all of these statistics about species collapse all of these statistics about um about things like rent rent prices going up and the relative relative poverty of young pe relative poorness of young people relative to prior generations. And my whole take was, God, it like things are not going in the right direction for my generation. All of the all of the numbers which were going up for my parents are now starting to go down for me. This feels like excruciatingly bad. What are we going to do? And I worked in technology because I think technology is one of the only like silver bullets that we're going to have to get the get humanity through the century. Like if I think about what's happened since then, solar panels went from a di like an extremely expensive proof of concept to something which is now a vast and cheap source of power for people around the world. Electric cars went from something that wasn't a concept to a thing that's widely deployed. Computer vision went from something that just basically didn't work to something which is now works. Affords things like environmentalists the ability to track Amazon rainforest deforestation. People in Africa to look at poaching and whether poaching is happening through smart cameras. There are these amazing dividends that have like come to the world through technology and in many places have started to work directly on some of our hardest problems ranging from climate to conservation. So, I'm an optimist because I think that AI unlocks unbelievable capabilities here. But the look, the gist of our conversation is how do you get those and how do you stop the bad stuff happening? And that's why I'm so so passionate about sharing this information, but also talking about policy. I I think it would just be an act of like incredible hubris to say everything will be fine. um we are dealing with the most powerful technology that's ever been built that is uh regulated less than any powerful technology before it and that that situation is not like a long-term stable thing. So I'm quite cheerful about about our prospects for changing that. Um but it wouldn't be honest of me to not say hey it's it's like a big deal and we should we should be worried about it and hold people to account about it.
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Jack Clark,非常感谢你。感谢你分享你改变世界的方式。
**Krishnan Guru-Murthy:** Jack Clark, thank you very much indeed. Thank you for sharing your way to change the world.
**Jack Clark:** 谢谢。你可以在 Channel 4 News 的 YouTube 频道观看所有这些采访。下次再见。
**Jack Clark:** Thank you. You can watch all of these interviews on the Channel 4 News YouTube channel. Until next time, bye-bye.